The Kitchens Group for Alan Grayson (9/3-6, likely voters):
Alan Grayson (D): 44
Ric Keller (R-inc): 40
(MoE: ± 4.4%)
These are some great numbers for attorney Alan Grayson, who was recently added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Keller hasn’t been exhibiting a lot of strength as of late — he recently held back a poorly-funded primary challenge by only a 53-47 margin, and demographic trends in the Orlando area have contributed to Democrats slicing the GOP’s voter registration advantage from 14K in 2006 to 2K this summer.
This is an R+3 district that Bush won twice — by 8 points in 2000, and 10 points in 2004. But the district has seen an influx of Puerto Rican voters who may be tipping the scales in the other direction. The poll also shows Obama and McCain tied at 44% in the district.
This race will be one to watch, for sure. The full polling memo is available below the fold.
since we’ve been burned so much in the past. But those are very encouraging numbers for Grayson obviously, but also for Obama.
Would a tie in this district basically mean a win for Obama state-wide? Have the demographics changed that much in this area in the last 4 years? If so, are the pollsters not picking up this trend?
I’ve got a lot of faith in the power of a quirky, well funded ad campaign. Grayson spent a lot of money and ran a lot of ads during the primary, powerful ads.
I think he can win this one.
Keller almost lost last year, winning 52-47 against Charlie Stuart who received no national help or attention, and, because of his expensive primary with Alan Grayson last year, was outspent overwhelmingly by Keller. I always expect this one to be close, along with FL-13.
that gerrymandering can only take you so far. In 2001, Jeb’s minions redrew this district into something resembling a check-mark to boost their margins. However, I think this poll bears out the fact that gerrymanders only last so long. The R’s outsmarted themselves in PA and paid the price for it. I think FL could see something similar this year (maybe not as dramatic, but an end result closer to how the state breaks down).
grayson’s a candidate who more than any other this cycle i can think of would hold the bush administration’s balls to the wall … guy’s been suing war profiteers, for fuck’s sakes. and i didn’t think he stood much of a chance because he seemed to initially fizzle on fundraising… anybody have any recent numbers on him? after this poll hope van hollen coughs something up…
From driving around all the time, there are more signs for Grayson than there are for Keller. I don’t know the politics too well around here as I am from Michigan and my official IRS residence is in Fort Lauderdale, but there isn’t as much GOP lopsidedness here as I expected from this area of Florida.
On a side note, I received a phone call from the Obama campaign saying they are opening a new South Orlando Office and invited me to the open house on Thursday night. I volunteered for help in the office and data entry type volunteering.
He is going to be a huge success or a miserable failure. Stuart was the safe pick to run in this district, Grayson the unorthodox outsider. We all did under estimate Grayson’s appeal in the primary, not sure how he’ll play to voters in the general.